Cambrian Calculate Liquidation Risk API
GET /api/v1/perp-risk-engine
Perpetual Futures Liquidation Risk Engine
Overview
The /api/v1/perp-risk-engine endpoint calculates the probability that a leveraged cryptocurrency position will be liquidated within a specified time horizon. It uses Monte Carlo simulations driven by real historical price data from the Cambrian API, automatically determining lookback periods and simulation parameters based on the requested risk horizon. The response includes the liquidation price, volatility metrics, and full simulation visualization data.
Business Value
- Risk Management: Quantify exact liquidation probabilities before entering leveraged positions to prevent unexpected losses
- Position Sizing: Optimize leverage levels based on statistical risk assessments and personal risk tolerance
- Market Intelligence: Understand volatility dynamics and price drift patterns for different tokens across various timeframes
- Trading Strategy: Make data-driven decisions on entry points, stop losses, and position duration based on probabilistic outcomes
- Capital Preservation: Avoid overleveraging by visualizing risk distributions and understanding sigma-based safety margins
Endpoint Details
URL:
https://risk.cambrian.network/api/v1/perp-risk-engine
Method: GET
Authentication: Required via X-API-Key header, or pay per request with x402. The x402 option does not require an API key.
Query Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Required | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
token_address |
string | Yes | - | Solana token address for the asset being traded |
entry_price |
float | Yes | - | Entry price of the position in USD (must be greater than 0) |
leverage |
float | Yes | - | Leverage multiplier for the position (must be greater than 0, maximum 1000) |
direction |
string | Yes | - | Position direction: long or short |
risk_horizon |
string | Yes | - | Time horizon over which to assess liquidation risk: 1h, 1d, 1w, or 1mo |
Response Field Descriptions
| Response Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
status |
string | Result status of the calculation, e.g. "success" |
riskProbability |
float | Probability (0.0–1.0) that the position will be liquidated within the risk horizon, derived from the fraction of Monte Carlo paths that breach the liquidation price |
liquidationPrice |
float | The price level at which the position would be liquidated, calculated from entry price, leverage, and direction |
entryPrice |
float | The entry price provided in the request, echoed back in the response |
volatility |
float | Annualized volatility of the token estimated from historical price data used in the simulation |
drift |
float | Estimated drift (mean return) of the token derived from historical price data |
priceChangeNeeded |
float | Fractional price move required to reach the liquidation price from the entry price (e.g. 0.1 means a 10% move) |
sigmasAway |
float | Number of standard deviations the liquidation price is from the current price, given the simulated volatility over the risk horizon |
simulationDetails |
object | Metadata about the Monte Carlo simulation run |
simulationDetails.totalSimulations |
integer | Total number of price paths simulated |
simulationDetails.liquidatedPaths |
integer | Number of simulated paths that reached the liquidation price |
simulationDetails.dataPointsUsed |
integer | Number of historical price data points used to calibrate the simulation |
simulationDetails.dataInterval |
string | Interval description of the historical data used |
simulationDetails.riskHorizon |
string | The risk horizon used for this simulation, echoing the request parameter |
visualizationData |
object | Data for rendering a probability distribution of simulated final prices |
visualizationData.histogram.bins |
array[float] | Price bin edges for the histogram of simulated final prices |
visualizationData.histogram.counts |
array[integer] | Number of simulated paths whose final price fell in each histogram bin |
visualizationData.histogram.finalPrices |
array[float] | Sampled final prices from individual simulation paths (subset for visualization) |
visualizationData.liquidationThreshold |
float | The liquidation price echoed into the visualization object for chart rendering |
server |
string | Server identifier string |
Examples
1. Assessing 1-Day Liquidation Risk for a 10x Long Position
This example demonstrates calculating the liquidation risk for a 10x leveraged long position on a Solana token entered at $2,800 over a 1-day horizon. The response shows full simulation detail including visualization data.
curl -X GET "https://risk.cambrian.network/api/v1/perp-risk-engine?token_address=EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v&entry_price=2800&leverage=10&direction=long&risk_horizon=1d" \
-H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json"
Response:
{
"status": "success",
"riskProbability": 0.0,
"liquidationPrice": 2519.8038627038927,
"entryPrice": 2800.0,
"volatility": 0.04471483870290695,
"drift": 0.0046871436434241945,
"priceChangeNeeded": 0.10007004903432402,
"sigmasAway": 42.756177990007,
"simulationDetails": {
"totalSimulations": 10000,
"liquidatedPaths": 0,
"dataPointsUsed": 672,
"dataInterval": "variable",
"riskHorizon": "1d"
},
"visualizationData": {
"histogram": {
"bins": [
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},
"liquidationThreshold": 2519.8038627038927
},
"server": "Python FastAPI"
}
The response shows riskProbability: 0.0 meaning zero of the 10,000 simulated price paths reached the liquidation price of $2,519.80 within the 1-day horizon. The position is approximately 42.76 standard deviations away from liquidation, indicating negligible short-term risk at 10x leverage given the token's measured volatility of ~4.5%.
2. Evaluating a Short Position
This example shows the same endpoint call structure for evaluating a short position. Replace direction=short in the query parameters to assess downside risk for short positions.
curl -X GET "https://risk.cambrian.network/api/v1/perp-risk-engine?token_address=EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v&entry_price=2800&leverage=10&direction=short&risk_horizon=1d" \
-H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
-H "Content-Type: application/json"
For a short position, the liquidation price will be above the entry price. The sigmasAway and riskProbability fields reflect the probability that the price rises enough to trigger liquidation within the chosen horizon.
x402 Payment Option
This endpoint supports pay-per-use access via the x402 payment protocol (v2) - pay $0.05 USDC per request using blockchain micropayments. No API key required.
Quick Start (TypeScript)
npm install @x402/fetch @x402/evm viem
import { x402Client } from "@x402/core/client";
import { ExactEvmScheme } from "@x402/evm/exact/client";
import { wrapFetchWithPayment } from "@x402/fetch";
import { privateKeyToAccount } from "viem/accounts";
const signer = privateKeyToAccount(process.env.EVM_PRIVATE_KEY as `0x${string}`);
const client = new x402Client();
client.register("eip155:*", new ExactEvmScheme(signer));
const fetchWithPayment = wrapFetchWithPayment(fetch, client);
const response = await fetchWithPayment("https://x402.cambrian.network/api/v1/perp-risk-engine?token_address=EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v&entry_price=2800&leverage=10&direction=long&risk_horizon=1d");
const data = await response.json();
Quick Start (Python)
pip install "x402[httpx]"
import asyncio
import os
from eth_account import Account
from x402 import x402Client
from x402.http.clients import x402HttpxClient
from x402.mechanisms.evm import EthAccountSigner
from x402.mechanisms.evm.exact.register import register_exact_evm_client
async def main():
client = x402Client()
account = Account.from_key(os.getenv("EVM_PRIVATE_KEY"))
register_exact_evm_client(client, EthAccountSigner(account))
async with x402HttpxClient(client) as http:
response = await http.get("https://x402.cambrian.network/api/v1/perp-risk-engine?token_address=EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v&entry_price=2800&leverage=10&direction=long&risk_horizon=1d")
print(response.json())
asyncio.run(main())
Payment Flow
- Send a normal request to the endpoint without an API key.
- Server returns
402 Payment Requiredwith payment details. - The x402 SDK signs a payment authorization with your wallet.
- The SDK resubmits the request with the signed payment.
- Server verifies payment and returns the API response.
The x402 SDK handles steps 2-5 automatically.
Network: Base (chain ID 8453) | Currency: USDC | Price: $0.05 per request